University of California Press
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
Key Metrics
- W Joseph Campbell
- University of California Press
- Paperback
- 9780520397781
- -
- -
- Political Science > Public Opinion Polling
- English
Secure TransactionBook Description
This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters' failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.
Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024.
As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author Bio
Dr. W. Joseph Campbell is a tenured full professor in the School of Communication's Communication Studies program. He joined the AU faculty in 1997, after some 20 years as a professional journalist. Assignments in his award-winning journalism career took him across North America to Europe, West Africa, and parts of Asia.
Campbell is the author of seven books, including most recently Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections. The book addresses prominent cases in which opinion polls misfired from 1936 to 2016. Campbell's other books include 1995: The Year the Future Began, which describes watershed moments of a decisive year in American history. Critics have described 1995 as "remarkable" and "compulsively readable." Campbell also has published two editions of the media-myth busting book, Getting It Wrong (2010, 2017).
The book won the national Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi award for research about journalism. Campbell has taught 19 different courses at AU, including "Myths of the Media," "Decisive Moments in Communication," "The American 1990s," and "Foreign Policy and the Press." He is a past winner of the "Faculty Member of the Year" award, given annually by AU's student government. He also has received the "Teaching with Research" award, given by the University's Center for Teaching Research and Learning. Campbell is a past recipient of the University's faculty award for service to the AU community and of the Morton Bender Prize, which recognizes scholarly achievement by an associate professor.
Campbell was promoted to full professor in 2009. For 16 years, Campbell kept his faculty office in McDowell Hall, an undergraduate residence hall on the North Side of the AU campus, as part of a collaborative program with the University's Office of Campus Life. In that position, Campbell sought to promote informal contacts among students and faculty in a residence hall setting, and to emphasize that academic life at AU extends beyond the classroom. He also taught seminar-style classes in McDowell.
Source: American University, Washington DC
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